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Parlamentswahl Bulgarien Oktober 2024 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte
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| GERB | APS | DPS | PP-DB | Vaz | BSP-OL | ITN | MECh | Vel | Andere |
| Note | MAE | sMAPE | MSE | Rang |
| Ergebnis June 2024 | 24,70 | 0,00 | 17,10 | 14,30 | 13,80 | 9,30 | 6,00 | 3,00 | 4,70 | 7,10 |
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| Prognosen Oktober 2024 |
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| Umfragen |
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| Alpha Research | 26,50 | 7,90 | 7,40 | 14,90 | 14,20 | 7,20 | 6,10 | 3,80 | 2,60 | 9,40 |
| 2,78 | 1,25 | 8,03 | 2,56 | 8 |
| Exacta | 26,70 | 8,10 | 7,30 | 14,60 | 14,30 | 7,50 | 6,00 | 3,70 | 2,60 | 9,20 |
| 2,83 | 1,29 | 8,34 | 2,62 | 9 |
| Trend | 24,90 | 7,80 | 7,00 | 14,80 | 15,20 | 6,50 | 6,60 | 4,00 | 3,60 | 9,60 |
| 2,71 | 1,26 | 6,89 | 3,10 | 7 |
| Market Links | 27,20 | 9,30 | 8,10 | 16,00 | 14,90 | 7,90 | 5,20 | 1,80 | 4,10 | 5,50 |
| 3,52 | 1,76 | 12,05 | 3,78 | 12 |
| Sova Haris | 25,60 | 8,70 | 6,50 | 14,70 | 14,50 | 9,80 | 6,80 | 3,10 | 4,20 | 6,10 |
| 3,09 | 1,43 | 9,16 | 3,68 | 10 |
| Mediana | 27,70 | 9,80 | 5,60 | 13,90 | 15,50 | 10,00 | 7,90 | 3,40 | 0,00 | 6,20 |
| 8,53 | 4,86 | 35,04 | 16,75 | 13 |
| Gallup | 26,10 | 7,80 | 7,60 | 16,20 | 14,90 | 7,10 | 6,20 | 4,10 | 3,80 | 6,20 |
| 2,42 | 1,12 | 5,62 | 2,47 | 5 |
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| Sonst. Umfr.-Prognosen |
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| PolitPro | 25,50 | 8,50 | 6,60 | 15,50 | 15,20 | 7,20 | 6,40 | 3,50 | 2,00 | 9,60 |
| 3,33 | 1,54 | 10,78 | 4,08 | 11 |
| Politico | 26,00 | 8,00 | 9,00 | 15,00 | 14,00 | 8,00 | 6,00 | 4,00 | 3,00 | 7,00 |
| 2,11 | 0,85 | 5,35 | 1,01 | 1 |
| Globe Elections UN | 26,19 | 8,19 | 7,34 | 15,13 | 14,64 | 7,41 | 6,10 | 3,49 | 3,30 | 8,21 |
| 2,59 | 1,16 | 6,98 | 2,33 | 6 |
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| GERB | APS | DPS | PP-DB | Vaz | BSP-OL | ITN | MECh | Vel | Andere |
| Note | MAE | sMAPE | MSE | Rang |
| Experten-prognosen |
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| Wahlfieber Team | 26,00 | 8,00 | 8,00 | 15,00 | 15,00 | 7,50 | 6,00 | 3,50 | 3,50 | 7,50 |
| 2,34 | 1,01 | 5,87 | 1,82 | 4 |
| MMI-Wahltrend | 26,15 | 7,93 | 8,00 | 15,28 | 14,53 | 7,45 | 6,08 | 3,85 | 3,23 | 7,53 |
| 2,28 | 0,98 | 5,64 | 1,70 | 2 |
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| Wahltipps |
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| Wahlfieber Average | 26,08 | 7,96 | 8,00 | 15,14 | 14,76 | 7,48 | 6,04 | 3,68 | 3,36 | 7,51 |
| 2,31 | 0,99 | 5,75 | 1,75 | 3 |
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| GERB | APS | DPS | PP-DB | Vaz | BSP-OL | ITN | MECh | Vel | Andere |
| Note | MAE | sMAPE | MSE | Rang |
| Durchschnitts-werte |
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| Umfragen | 26,39 | 8,49 | 7,07 | 15,01 | 14,79 | 8,00 | 6,40 | 3,41 | 3,48 | 6,96 |
| 3,68 | 1,85 | 12,16 | 4,99 |
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| Sonstige Prognosen | 25,90 | 8,23 | 7,65 | 15,21 | 14,61 | 7,54 | 6,17 | 3,66 | 2,77 | 8,27 |
| 2,71 | 1,18 | 7,70 | 2,47 |
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| Experten-prognosen | 26,08 | 7,96 | 8,00 | 15,14 | 14,76 | 7,48 | 6,04 | 3,68 | 3,36 | 7,51 |
| 2,31 | 0,99 | 5,76 | 1,76 |
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| Wahltipps | 26,08 | 7,96 | 8,00 | 15,14 | 14,76 | 7,48 | 6,04 | 3,68 | 3,36 | 7,51 |
| 2,31 | 0,99 | 5,75 | 1,75 |
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| Gesamt-durchschnitt |
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| Summen | 26,20 | 8,31 | 7,42 | 15,09 | 14,74 | 7,77 | 6,26 | 3,53 | 3,27 | 7,41 |
| 3,16 | 1,50 | 9,65 | 3,66 |
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| Ergebnis Oktober 2024 | 25,52 | 7,23 | 11,17 | 13,74 | 12,92 | 7,32 | 6,56 | 4,44 | 3,87 | 7,23 |
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| GERB | APS | DPS | PP-DB | Vaz | BSP-OL | ITN | MECh | Vel | Andere |
| Note | MAE | sMAPE | MSE | Rang |
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