cnn-poll usa
-
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Fred Thompson got into the Republican race with great expectations. And sure enough, just after he got in last month, polling showed Thompson and Rudy Giuliani were just about tied for front-runner.
Fred Thompson's support in the polls has slipped.
But since then, Thompson's taken a lot of flak for a lackluster campaign from party activists in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Support for his campaign has also wavered. The new CNN poll by the Opinion Research Corporation released Tuesday shows Thompson's support dropping -- now at 19 percent, down from 27 percent in September.
He's now running second, slightly ahead of Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, who has 17 percent. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, still leads with 27 percent.
Of the remaining Republican presidential candidates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney received support from 13 percent of the Republicans polled, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee received 5 percent, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California received 3 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas received 2 percent, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas received 1 percent and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado received 1 percent.
The poll's margin of error for the Republican race is plus or minus 5 percentage points. Watch what the polls reveal »
On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York continues to gain support and build on her lead. She led Sen. Barack Obama by 23 points last month -- 46 percent to 23 percent. She now leads the Illinois senator by 30 points -- 51 percent to 21 percent.
Don't Miss
Clinton has $35 million in primary funds
GOP breaking Reagan's 11th commandment
Campaign ad spending expected to reach $3 billion
Election Center 2008: Candidates
Of the remaining Democratic presidential candidates, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards received support from 15 percent of the Democrats polled, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson received 4 percent, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware received 1 percent, Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut received 1 percent, former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel received 1 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio received 1 percent.
On this question, former Vice President Al Gore was not included as a candidate.
The margin of error for the Democratic poll was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The poll, conducted by telephone on October 12-14, involved interviews with 1,212 adults, including 485 registered voters who describe themselves as Democrats or as Independents who lean Democratic, and 374 registered voters who describe themselves as Republicans or as Independents who lean Republican.
A majority of Democrats favor Clinton, whereas fewer than a third of Republicans favor their front-runner, Giuliani.
Now that Gore has won the Nobel Peace Prize, there doesn't appear to be a surge of support for him to make a run. Gore came in third among Democrats, at 14 percent -- about the same as last month -- when included in the poll as a potential candidate.
Expectations are building fast. Nearly two-thirds, or 64 percent, of those polled expect Clinton to be the Democratic nominee. That's four times more than those who expect Obama to be the nominee.
Of those polled, who do they expect to win the Republican nomination? Half chose Giuliani. That's nearly four to one over John McCain.
And who do voters expect to win the election? Clinton was chosen by 45 percent. Only 16 percent expect Giuliani to get elected. Nobody else gets more than 10 percent.
Now it's Clinton who faces great expectations. Here's one reason: Asked if they would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for president, voters prefer the Democrat by 13 points.
But when the two front-runners are pitted against each other, Clinton leads Giuliani by just two percentage points, 49 percent to 47 percent, a statistical tie.
The poll's margin of error for general election questions is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Why would a Clinton-Giuliani matchup be so close? Mainly because Giuliani does eight points better than a generic Republican.
The race between Clinton and Giuliani is close, not because Clinton is weak, but because Giuliani gets a lot more support from moderate and independent voters than a generic Republican candidate.
That's the irony. Giuliani is trying to sound more and more like a typical Republican to get the nomination. But voters don't see him as a typical Republican.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/16/schneider.poll/index.html
-
Im STandard gibt es zu dem Thema diese Woche auch einen Hintergrundartikel. Was denkt ihr, wie stark ist der Einfluss der konservativen Christen bei den Republikanern wirklich?
Wird das in Europa nicht übertrieben?
http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=3082894
-
ich glaube, dass dies in europa nicht unbedingt übertrieben wird.
darf ich dir eine gegenfrage stellen:
wie stark ist der einfluss orthodoxer kräfte in israel?
ich denke, das könnte man durchaus vergleichen...
uriel, korrigiere mich bitte, falls ich völlig daneben liege.
-
Na, das ist genau was ich meine.
Die Orthodoxen sind zwar in Israel oft das "Zünglein an der Wage", aber das ist bei einer Koalition in Deutschland, z.B. mit der FDP nicht viel anders. Obwohl die FDP nur ca 10% der Wähler hinter sich versammelt,, hatte sie in der Geschichte doch überproprtional viel politisches Gewicht (das gleiche gilt auch für die Grünen)
So funktioniert Demokratie - dennoch glaube ich, dass der Einfluss der Orthodoxen in Israel in Europa überbewertet wird.
Wahrscheinlich ähnlich wie jener der Christian Rights in den USA. Aber vielleicht gibts da noch andere Meinungen.
LG
U.
-
Hier gehts ja eher um eine ideologische als eine durchorganisierte, homogene Gruppe, da gibts ja unzählige verschiedene protestantische Gruppen und andere Konsiorgs.Giuliani ist sicher nicht konservativ genug für die Mehrheit der Basis, was aber diesesmal komplett unwichtig sein könnte weil man aufgrund des Super Tuesday am 5.2 auch ohne eine klare Mehrheit das Rennen machen kann.
Wenn sich kein konservativer Spitzenkandidat spätestens nach New Hampshire rauskristallisiert(und davon ist nix zu sehen) dann sind auch schwächere Resultate in den frühen Staaten wurscht, weil dann kommt schon bald das moderate Florida wo Giuliani gut ankommt und seine starken finanziellen Reserven einsetzen kann und dann eben der Super Tuesday mit Californien,New York,Illinois,New Jersey...4 grossen liberalen Staaten...an dem Tag kann Giuliani locker 30+% reissen und bei einem gespaltenen Konsifeld die Nr.1 Position klar an sich ziehen.Und dann ist das Rennen eigentlich auch schon wieder vorbei...
Die einzige Gefahr für Giuliani besteht darin, dass aus dem Quartett Romney,Thompson,McCain,Huckabee 2-3 schon früh dermaßen eine am Deckel bekommen dass die vorm 5.2 oder noch schlimmer vor Florida aus dem Rennen ausscheiden.Wenns ein 2-Mann Rennen wird, wird Giuliani wahrscheinlich verlieren.
Missing Translation: info_module.sf_info_box_text
How does this work?
This is how you contribute to the prediction - See the Infocenter
Found an error?
Your Feedback?
Please send error messages and feedback by email to: help@wahlfieber.ch
in Kooperation mit 