Which candidates will be elected 2011 to the Swiss Cabinet?

Shares
The following ‘person shares’ can be traded at the start of the market (order according time in office):
- Doris Leuthard, PDC
- Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf, PBD
- Ueli Maurer, UDC
- Didier Burkhalter, PLR
- Simonetta Sommaruga, PS
- Johann Schneider-Ammann, PLR
- Other persons

Other ‘persons shares’ will be added during the «Federal Council (Cabinet) elections» market period. This will be the result of splitting sares called «Others».

Note
If the election is adjourned because an elected official has not yet declared to «accept the election», the market will reopen on December 14 2011, 18:00.

Market conditions and special considerations
At the start of the market each registered participant will receive 1‘000‘000 EX cash.

The principal behind the market is the « winner takes it all». The seven winning shares, referring to the elected Federal Councilors, will each receive 100 Ex; all further shares will receive 0 Ex. Therefore, a total of 700 Ex (7 x 100 Ex) are available to be allotted.

The Swiss Federal Council (Swiss Cabinet)
The Swiss government (Executive Branch) is composed of seven members, who as a «collegial government» constitute the Federal Council (Swiss Cabinet). On December 14 at the beginning of the new legislative session the United Federal Assembly will elect new members oft he Cabinet individually and in a secret ballot. The Federal Assembly is made up of the 200 delegates elected on October 23 to the National Council (Swiss House of Representatives) and 46 members of the Council of States (Swiss Senate). Immediately following the announcement of the results the newly elected or reconfirmed member of Cabinet will either «accept the election» or refuse to «accept the election».
Link [admin.ch]

Note
In accordance to the composition of the Swiss Cabinet only the shares of the seven elected Federal Councilors win in this market. The winning shares will each receive a dividend of 100 Ex.
The number 100 and the trading span between 0 and 100 Ex were chosen to express a probability during the course of the market period on the base of the individual share price. For example: Traders in the election stock market believe that Candidate A will be elected to the Cabinet with a probability of X %.

Payout rules
For each ‘person share’ held by a player in his/her portfolio at the end of the market, the player acquires the right to receive a payout in the amount of 100 Ex, provided that the real person was elected to the Cabinet and has accepted the position.

Adding shares (share splits)
Shares may be added by splitting the shares listed as «Other persons». This occurs whenever a candidate is officially nominated by a party for election to the Cabinet.

Note
Due to market technical reasons the organizer reserves the right not to provide every nominated individual with a ‘person share’.

Withdrawal of shares
A share will be immediately withdrawn from the market and assigned 0 Ex, if a candidate relinquishes the right to the candidacy or withdraws due to legal or health reasons.

Definition of shares titled «Other persons»
The share titled «Other persons» includes all persons who declare themselves candidates to the Cabinet, but who have not yet been officially nominated. Following the election this share includes all individuals who were elected to the Cabinet, but were not listed with a ‘person share’ in the market. These shares will be distributed accordingly. The «Other persons» share is excluded from the applicable trading span from 0 to 100 Ex for all named person shares. It has a maximum value of 700 Ex.
In theory, it is possible that seven non-nominated individuals could be elected to the Cabinet on December 14. For this reason, the maximum value of this share is set at 700 Ex.

Procedure for splitting «Other persons» shares
At the point a share titled «Other persons» is split trading will be halted for a short time (approx. one minute). In the interim, a new person share will be brought to market and the actual split of the «Other persons» share carried out. Essentially the process is as follows: Any trader who holds a part of the «Other persons» share at the time of the split receives an equal part in the new person share brought to the market.

Exceptions
Decisive for the payout of shares is the time at which shares are distributed, which occurs after the election of the entire Cabinet. The distribution will proceed quickly provided that one or more of the elected individuals do not delay «accepting the election» or require extra time to reconsider their election. In case the election is adjourned the distribution of the market will be deferred till the final decision. If, contrary to expectations, within the time span between the election and distribution of the exchange one or more Federal Councilors drop out, their market value will be allocated to the «Other persons» share in case the elected person has not been represented in the market with a personal share.

Links
General election of Swiss Cabinet [parlament.ch]

Elections to the Swiss Cabinet (Swiss Parliament Law) [admin.ch]

The Swiss Federal Council (Cabinet) [admin.ch]