CH - What will be the party strength (in percent) of the smallest parties (regional parties) in the Swiss House of Representatives election 2011?

Payout rules
Every share held by a trader in his/her portfolio at the end of the exchange will be paid out according to the actual result of this share after the election.

Explications to the market question
For dealing on the SRG election stock market the value «party strength» has been defined as the expected value for the party stocks. The Federal Office of Statistics defines party strength as the «contingent of votes a party gained, in relation to the sum of all valid votes».

The party strength all over Switzerland in percent defined the issuing price of the six party stocks at the launch of the SRG election stock market.

Party shares
The party shares were created by including the minority parties in the Swiss House of Representatives whose party strength at the parliamentary elections in 2007 accounted for less than 1% or are currently represented in the House of Representatives with one or none elected members.
These include the parties represented in the House of Representatives:
Lega dei Ticinesi (Lega) - 1 seat, 0.58 % 2007
Swiss Democrats (SD) - 0 seat, 0.53 %
Christian Social Party (CSP) - 1 seat, 0.43 %
Movement Citoyens (Citizens' Movement) (MC) [GE, VD, NE] - 0 seat, 0.12 %
Social Liberal Movement (SLM) - 1 seat, 0.00 %
Additionally for this stock market the share «Difference» - 6.34 %; difference to the market value 8.

Difference share
The «difference» share represents the difference between the sum of all of the shares on the market and the market value (total value of the respective market).

Prediction markets require a fixed total value in order to be able to buy and sell bundles of shares. Therefore, markets whose values are arbitrarily determined need an additional (artificial) share – the «difference» share.

In order to obtain a good prediction, the combined market value of the minority party shares is arbitrarily limited to 8 (=8%), instead of the normal 100 (= 100%). A supposition is made that the minority parties as a whole will not receive more than 8% of the votes. However, because the exact results for these minority parties are not known before the election, the artificial «difference» share is introduced into the party market. This share can be traded and allows the buying and selling of bundles.

Should the actual result of the parties represented on the market surprisingly exceed the market value (here 20), the «difference» share is set to 0 EX. All other shares will be distributed according to their actual results.

Links
BFS/FOS - Party strength parliamentary elections 2007 (in German):
http://www.politik-stat.ch/nrw2007CH_de.html

Election Option poll reports by the research and polling institute gfs.bern on behalf of SRG SSR (in German):
http://www.gfsbern.ch/Publikationen/Dossiers/Wahlbarometer.aspx